The large snow pack in the Nordic countries in the initial conditions provides a strong potential for positive discharge anomalies once the melting season starts.
Otherwise no significant signals for Europe.
Initial very wet over most of central-northern Europe. Iberian peninsula still dry after dry autumn.
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La Nina conditions
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Lot of snow in Scandinavia, less than normal in Russia
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Fading La Nina, stronger in UKMO than ECMWF.
La Nina conditions connected to drier south-western Europe in MAM.
North-eastern Europe somewhat wetter than normal in all models.
First month wet in southern Europe and dry in Norway.
Low in February discharge in Scandinavia, where it’s still cold
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Initial very wet over most of central-northern Europe. Iberian peninsula still dry after dry autumn.
La Nina conditions
Lot of snow in Scandinavia, less than normal in Russia
Fading La Nina, stronger in UKMO than ECMWF.
La Nina conditions connected to drier south-western Europe in MAM.
North-eastern Europe somewhat wetter than normal in all models.
First month wet in southern Europe and dry in Norway.
IHC (green), SCF (blue)
Very cold first month in the North. Delayed snow melt?
Scandinavia low discharge in February (still cold).
Low in February discharge in Scandinavia, where it’s still cold.
Gradually increased positive anomaly in Scandinavia as entering the melting season.
Gradually increased positive anomaly in Scandinavia as we’re entering the melting season.
