PROBABILISTIC FLOOD DAMAGE MODEL
Description
This novel probabilistic flood damage model allows the assessment of flood risk using an improved picture of expected flood damage, based on public and pan-European data. The model has been successfully validated with officially reported loss numbers for three case studies: the Caldogno river in Italy, the Lech in Austria and the Mulde basin in Germany. The selection was mainly driven by the data availability of damage drivers for the different regions and the availability of validation data. The value of locally available information about previous flood impacts is evaluated.
(Potential) Categories of users
Insurance companies, risk and emergency managers, local authorities
(Potential) applications to decision making in the water sector:
Assessment of flood damage under present and projected future climate
Links to relevant webpages
References/links to relevant IMPREX publications:
- Wagenaar, D., de Jong, J., and Bouwer, L. M (2017). Multi-variable flood damage modelling with limited data using supervised learning approaches, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 17, 1683-1696 +
- Wagenaar, D., Lüdtke, S., Schröter, K., Bouwer, L. M., Kreibich, H. (2018): Regional and Temporal Transferability of Multivariable Flood Damage Models. - Water Resources Research, 54, 5, pp. 3688-3703. +
Added value of this modelling approach/model/results
Advanced probabilistic techniques and locally available information about previous flood events has improved the model performance.
What decision can be improved with this modelling approach:
Infrastructure measures for adaptation to floods, insurance product design