A “SURROGATE WARMING” EXPERIMENT TO INVESTIGATE EXTREME WEATHER UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS

Description

High-resolution convection resolving weather prediction models have been applied to future climate conditions by warming the atmospheric inputs to the forecasts, a technique labelled as “surrogate warming”. Where these simulations are too expensive to generate a large representative ensemble, the case-study oriented approach developed here allows credible assessment of the degree to which extreme events will materialize in a future climate context.