EVALUATION OF SEASONAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS SYS5, SYS4 AND GLOSEA
Description
We carried out an intensive evaluation of precipitation and temperature outputs from the new SYS5 seasonal forecasting system (ECMWF) and of the GLOSEA and SYS4 forecasting systems. The evaluation focused on IMPREX sectoral applications: flood risk assessment, hydropower, urban water, agriculture and drought, transport and water economy.
(Potential) Categories of users
Hydrologists, water managers, agricultural companies, water transport, hydropower sector
(Potential) applications to decision making in the water sector:
Improved hydrological forecasts
References/links to relevant IMPREX publications:
- Jaime Madrigal, Abel Solera, Sara Suárez-Almiñana, Javier Paredes-Arquiola, Joaquín Andreu, Sonia T. Sánchez-Quispe, Skill assessment of a seasonal forecast model to predict drought events for water resource systems, Journal of Hydrology, Volume 564, 2018, Pages 574-587 +
- Neumann, J., L. Arnal, L. Magnusson, and H. Cloke, 2018: The 2013/14 Thames Basin Floods: Do Improved Meteorological Forecasts Lead to More Skillful Hydrological Forecasts at Seasonal Time Scales?. J. Hydrometeor., 19, 1059–1075 +
- van Osnabrugge, B., Weerts, A. H., & Uijlenhoet, R. (2017). genRE: A method to extend gridded precipitation climatology data sets in near real-time for hydrological forecasting purposes. Water Resources Research 53. +
Contact
Added value of this modelling approach/model/results
Improved seasonal forecasts with skill meeting sectoral user demand
What decision can be improved with this modelling approach:
Decisions dependent on weather forecasts in various sectors including agriculture, inland waterway transport, urban water, hydropower