RISK ANALYSIS OF COMPOUND FLOOD EVENTS

Description

Multiple processes are jointly contributing to flood risks, and these cannot always be considered to be independent. High rainfall, for example, frequently coincides with wind-driven surge events. Compound drivers of flood events have been analysed with the help of new model datasets and innovative analysis concepts, in close co-operation with local water authorities and other stakeholders. In particular, compound water events have been analysed for present and future climates in a number of small catchment areas in the Netherlands.

(Potential) Categories of users

Water managers, local authorities, urban planners

(Potential) applications to decision making in the water sector:

Risk analysis of flooding in particularly complex hydrological systems (for instance, the interplay of high flooding risks from both a main river and its smaller tributaries).

Links to relevant webpages

Future weather and compound events +

References/links to relevant IMPREX publications:

Jakob Zscheischler, Seth Westra, Bart J. J. M. van den Hurk, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Philip J. Ward, Andy Pitman, Amir AghaKouchak, David N. Bresch, Michael Leonard, Thomas Wahl & Xuebin Zhang: Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change (2018), doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0156-3 +

Contact

Hans Hakvoort

Added value of this modelling approach/model/results

Conventional methods of risk analysis for compound events may lead to biased estimates, potentially to over- or underprotection of the area. With more precise approaches, better justified optimization decisions are possible.

What decision can be improved with this modelling approach:

Decision on protection measures against floods in complex hydrological situations
Decisions on adaptation to floods under future climate conditions